Bailouts by the Federal Government Have a Long Precedent

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What a week!

We a truly living in interesting (financial) times.

The US Treasury and The Federal Reserve Bank took massive actions this week in order to stabilize the US financial system. Congress is expected to pass a bill next week which would allow for further, more radical intervention.

Interestingly enough, this is not without precedent. In today’s Wall Street Journal, there is an article titled: Government Bailouts: A U.S. Tradition Dating to Hamilton, which discusses various interventions the US government has taken over the years to end financial panics.

Two stand out as being especially relevant to our current situation:

First in 1792, Alexander Hamilton engineered the first financial bailout in US history. It started when the federal government assumed the revolutionary war debts of several individual states. This was part of a deal the eventually made Washington the capital. In order to assume the debt, the federal government issued 6% bonds, known as Sixes. Financial speculators attempted to corner the market in Sixes, and also to weaken the Bank of New York in order to take it over. The plot ran the price of the Sixes up for a time, but then crashed 25% in two weeks. In order to stop a wider panic, Hamilton did something extraordinary:

Working without a historical blueprint, Hamilton engineered an innovative response. The Treasury borrowed money from the banks and used it to buy government bonds, lifting the market price. He also told banks to accept bonds as collateral for loans to securities brokers, with the government guaranteeing the collateral.

The financial system stabilized, and no banks failed until 1809.

Another government bailout which I think has significance to the current situation occurred in 1933, during The Great Depression. By that time, 1,000 Americans per day were losing their homes to foreclosure. President Roosevelt and Congress created the Home Owners’ Loan Corp., which bought defaulted mortgages from banks and then refinanced them at a lower rate.

Ultimately, the agency issued mortgages, averaging $3,039 apiece, to some one million homeowners. About one in 10 Americans with nonfarm, owner-occupied dwellings secured aid from the agency, according to a 1951 paper by C. Lowell Harriss of Columbia University.

The current mortgage crisis involves securities backed by subprime home loans. But during the 1930s, there was no secondary market for securitized mortgages. So the agency had to hold the mortgages for the full terms. It finally closed up shop in 1951, with about 80% of borrowers having paid their loans off on time or early.

The agency earned the government a small profit.

Did you get that? They saved 80% of the people from foreclosure and earned a profit!

I find this second example to be very interesting, and hope that the folks designing our most current bailout look to it as a model.

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What’s Up With Nvidia?

On a day when the market is scared to death, and people are screaming that the end is nigh, Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) was up 4.28%.

This was on no real news.

Nvidia has fallen from its 52 week high of $39.67 to a recent $8.80. It closed today at $10.00. Can it be inferred from this strong counter trend move that they are “in play?”

Maybe. Nvidia has had its share of problems lately. They have had issues with some of their chipsets, which required them to take large charges; are facing increased competition from AMD and Intel; and economic conditions are not favorable.

That being said, Nvidia has no debt, a strong cash position, and a history of producing innovative and desirable products.

This could be a case where a number of investors are recognizing an apparent value, but it seems odd to push the price up on a day when virtually everything is going down. More likely, news of a potential merger has leaked out.

Stay tuned.

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Airlines Are Up Huge Today

So goes oil, so goes the airlines.

As oil continues to drop, the airline stocks have been on an absolute tear. This is in contrast to the overall market which has been generally miserable.

At the time of this writing:

  • Delta Airlines (NYSE:DAL) is up 24% today and up 79% in the last three months.
  • Northwest Airlines Corporation (NYSE:NWA) is up 22% today and up 80% in the last three months.
  • US Airways Group (NYSE:LCC) is up 17% today and up 195% in the last three months.
  • AMR Corporation (NYSE:AMR) is up 17% and up 132% in the last three months.

Here is a chart comparing the airlines listed above to

airlines-oil-comparison-chart-2008-09-16.jpg

Very impressive, however one must consider what happened to the airlines in the months before oil began its fall.

Here is the same group, except the chart shows a one year time frame.

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As you can see, most of these stocks are still way down on a 52 week basis. An important investment skill to learn is to not kick yourself for missing a huge upward move in a group of stocks. Unless you have a detailed knowledge of both the supply and demand dynamics of the oil and airline industries, investing in these stocks at any point in the last year could only be labeled a speculation (read gambling).

Remember the Warren Buffett maxim “There are no called strikes in investing.”

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What is a Credit Default Swap (CDS)?

Credit default swaps (CDS) have been in the news a lot lately. Most recently, they have been featured prominently in the trouble effecting American International Group (AIG).

What is a credit default swap? A credit default swap is a type of credit derivative, meaning its value is derived from the credit risk of a loan, bond, or other type of financial asset. A credit risk is the risk a lender takes that a debtor may not pay back a loan. In its simplest form a credit default swap allows a lender to pay another party for “insurance” against the default of a borrower. A buyer of a credit default swap receives protection against the default of a borrower, and a seller of the credit default swap guarantees that the lender will receive payment. Engaging in this transaction, effectively shifts the risk of default to the seller to the credit default swap, hence the name.

The market for credit default swaps is enormous, totaling $62.2 *trillion* at the end of last year, and has a huge effect on the world’s financial markets. 1 Take a little time and educate yourself on this subject. For further reading, I recommend you checkout the wikipedia article on credit default swaps.


  1. Derivatives and Dangerous Times
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Stop Co-Workers From Stealing Food


Photo Credit: Lifehacker

Co-workers stealing your food? Fight back with food camouflage! Spots on the outside of the bag make the contents look moldy, so thieves skip your food.

The only thing you have to worry about is someone chunking it thinking that its old.

(via Lifehacker, via skforlee)

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Banks Working Harder to Collect Credit Card Debt

According to an article in today’s Wall Street Journal, big credit card companies are ramping up collection efforts on their credit card portfolios.

Citigroup has hired a number of new collectors and have increased the frequency of calls to delinquent account holders. American Express is offering to cut interest rates and fees, while Bank of America has begun contacting customers with late accounts earlier than in the past.

This effort is in response to an increase in delinquencies brought about by a number of factors including decreasing home prices, increased gasoline prices, and rising unemployment. The banks are also facing pressure from other areas of their business and are aggressively trying to keep credit card debt from being the next banking crisis.

Total revolving debt in the United States, which primarily consists of credit card balances, was $969.9 billion at the end of July.

The banks recommend that if you see yourself getting into trouble, it is best to go ahead and contact your credit card company in order to work out a plan as soon as possible.

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Think You Are A Trader? IRS Says Think Again.

Even if you make hundreds of trades per year, the IRS may not consider you a “trader” for tax purposes.

This is according to an article in today’s Wall Street Journal titled: “Think You’re A Trader? IRS May Disagree.”

It details a Florida couple who formed a trading company and performed over 660 trades over a two year period. They formed a separate company to perform transactions, and claimed losses in both years as well as other company related expenses.

Traders, as defined by the IRS, have different tax rights than individual investors. Income they earn on their trading activities cannot be treated as capital gains and is therefore taxed as normal income at higher rates. However, traders using the mark to market method of accounting are allowed to treat any losses they suffer as ordinary losses instead of capital losses. Normal investors are allowed to offset capital losses with capital gains on a dollar-for-dollar basis. In cases where losses exceed gains, the investor is only allowed to deduct $3,000 per year ($1,500 if married filing separately) with the remainder carried forward into future years.

In order to be considered a trader by the IRS one must meet two criteria: (1) trading activity has to be substantial, and (2) traders must be attempting to profit from daily swings in the market. (For further information see: IRS Tax Topic 429)

In the case of the Florida couple, the judge found that they did not meet either of these criteria, and therefore, were not eligible to deduct the full amount of their losses. The judge in the case also disallowed other deductions the couple had claimed.

This should underscore the ramifications that can occur when you step outside the normal bounds of taxable activities. Be sure to seek professional advice, and always try to err on the side of caution.

The full decision can be read here.

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Colleges Can’t Keep Up With Demand For On Campus Housing

Keble College Oxford
Photo by Dimitry B

Colleges across the country are experiencing shortages in on campus housing, according to this article on insidehighered.com. Large numbers of upperclassmen - who would traditionally seek off campus housing - are attempting to find an on campus residence, at the same time as “larger-than-average freshman classes” are entering school.

Administrators see this trend as an attempt by students to save money in response to the slowing economy. Some universities are having to resort to novel approaches to deal with on campus housing shortages:

Some colleges have even gone as far as offering financial incentives to freshmen who choose, for example, to live three to a double-occupancy room. This may be represented in an overall discount on annual room and board expenses. Additionally, others have had to convert previously common or storage areas into livable space.

This is an interesting “ripple effect” of the dramatic increase in the price of food and energy in the last year

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All of Inflation’s Little Parts - The New York Times

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Very nice infographic from the New York Times showing a visual representation of how much the average American spends on each of the 200 categories that make up the Consumer Price Index (the most common measure of inflation).

The largest component - by far - is “Owner’s Equivalent Rent”, which seeks to estimate the amount of rent a homeowner would be required to pay if they were renting their home. This represent 23.9% of the model American’s spending.

Another point of interest is spending on gasoline. The chart shows this number as 5.2% of spending. This is up a massive 26% from 2007.

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13 Year Old Steals His Father’s Credit Card, Buys Hookers

Since there was a credit card mentioned in this story, I am going to call it finance related.

Ralph Hardy, a 13 year old from Newark, Texas confessed to ordering an extra credit card from his father’s existing credit card company, and took his friends on a $30,000 spending spree, culminating in playing “Halo” on an Xbox with a couple of hookers in a Texas motel.

Read the full article.

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